Spencer Pratt, the former reality television star who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, now leads incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, a new California Post/McLaughlin & Associates poll shows, a result that would have been unthinkable six months ago and now looks like the clearest measure yet of voter fury in America's second-largest city.
Pratt draws 30.1 percent support among likely voters. Bass sits at 29.5 percent. Councilwoman Nithya Raman, running from Bass's left, trails at 23.4 percent. The margin of error is ±4.9 points, making the top two statistically tied, but the direction of the race is unmistakable.
Just three weeks ago, after the first mayoral debate, 40 percent of voters were undecided. That number has collapsed to 5 percent. And when those voters made up their minds, they did not break for the incumbent. They broke against her.
The headline figure is the horse race. The devastating figures are underneath it. Bass's job approval stands at 32 percent. Her disapproval sits at 66 percent, with 41 percent of respondents registering strong disapproval. Her personal favorability mirrors the wreckage: 32 percent favorable, 65 percent unfavorable.
Those are not numbers that suggest a close contest. They are numbers that suggest an electorate looking for the exit.
John McLaughlin, CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, which conducted the survey May 26, 28, framed it bluntly.
"I think the mayor's race is a lot more volatile. Normally it's a slam dunk for the Democrats, but it's being driven by the negatives on Bass."
He added: "Karen Bass has a huge disapproval, and she has a significant unfavorable rating." In a city where 64 percent of the poll's respondents identify as Democrats, that is not a partisan problem. It is a performance problem.
The poll asked voters what matters most. Twenty-six percent named homelessness and mental illness as the top issue. Eighteen percent cited housing affordability. Thirteen percent pointed to inflation and broader cost-of-living pressures. Seven percent chose crime, drugs, and public safety.
Add those up and nearly two-thirds of respondents named some version of the same complaint: life in Los Angeles is too expensive, too dangerous, or too chaotic, and the people in charge haven't fixed it. Sixty-two percent of likely voters said the city is on the wrong track.
That sentiment tracks with what former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa recently told fellow Democrats, stop blaming outside forces for California's homelessness and housing crises and start owning the failures.
Bass has governed Los Angeles during a period when those failures became impossible to ignore. The Palisades Fire destroyed entire neighborhoods, and her administration's response drew withering criticism from residents who lived through it.
Pratt is not a conventional candidate by any measure. He is a Republican running in a city dominated by Democrats. He is best known for the reality show "The Hills." And he entered the race after his own home burned in the Palisades Fire, a personal loss that gave him a credibility no political consultant could manufacture.
During the May 7 mayoral debate covered by National Review, Pratt called Bass "an incredible liar" over her handling of the disaster response. Bass, for her part, downplayed her responsibility, casting the fires as a freak occurrence that could not have been prevented, a characterization that conflicted with evidence suggesting the city had warning.
A recorded call revealed Bass was warned about wind danger days before the Palisades Fire, adding fuel to the argument that her administration failed to prepare.
The poll shows Pratt's support is especially strong among Hispanic voters, where he leads with 33 percent compared to Bass's 24 percent and Raman's 21 percent. His campaign, described as groundbreaking in its social-media focus, appears to have connected with voters who want a dramatic break from traditional Los Angeles politics.
Councilwoman Nithya Raman, described in the poll analysis as a socialist, occupies an unusual position. Her personal numbers are actually stronger than either of her opponents: 40 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable. But she sits in third place with 23.4 percent.
The problem for Raman is structural. She and Bass are competing for the same pool of Democratic voters. McLaughlin noted the dynamic directly.
"There's a Democrat primary within the primary, and Raman's competing with her and has more of an upside among those voters."
That split benefits Pratt. Every progressive voter Raman peels away from Bass widens the lane for the Republican outsider. And with only 5 percent of voters still undecided, neither Bass nor Raman has much room to grow without taking from the other.
Bass has drawn controversy beyond the fire response. She drew sharp backlash for calling Pratt "reprehensible", an attack on a man who had just lost his home that struck many voters as tone-deaf.
The California Post/McLaughlin & Associates survey polled 400 likely voters across every major region of Los Angeles using live phone calls and text-message interviews conducted in both English and Spanish. The sample skewed 53 percent female and 47 percent male, with an average respondent age of 52. Fifty-two percent identified as White, 27 percent as Hispanic, 10 percent as Black, and 9 percent as Asian. Nearly two-thirds hold college degrees, and more than 60 percent voted in all four of the last general elections.
That is a sample of engaged, habitual voters, exactly the people who show up for primaries. And they are telling the incumbent mayor, by a two-to-one margin, that they disapprove of the job she is doing.
McLaughlin offered one final observation about the days remaining before Tuesday's primary: "A lot depends upon who has a good weekend this weekend."
For Bass, the challenge is not just persuading voters. It is overcoming the weight of her own record. Her administration has faced scrutiny on multiple fronts, including reports that she explored noncitizen voting rights in Los Angeles, a move that alienated voters who expect election integrity as a baseline.
The broader Democratic Party is grappling with its own internal fractures. The DNC recently faced a revolt over its incomplete 2024 autopsy, and the Los Angeles race is shaping up as another data point in a pattern: Democratic incumbents who govern badly cannot count on the party label to save them.
Los Angeles is not a swing city. It is a fortress of progressive governance. Democrats make up nearly two-thirds of the likely electorate in this poll. And yet the incumbent Democratic mayor cannot crack 30 percent, cannot hold a favorable rating above 32 percent, and cannot convince even a third of voters that she is doing a good job.
Pratt may be an unconventional messenger. But the message, that the people running Los Angeles have failed the people living in it, is not unconventional at all. It is the oldest story in democratic politics: voters punish leaders who let things fall apart.
When two out of three residents say the city is headed the wrong way, the person at the wheel doesn't get to blame the road.
