The NFL is pressing the Supreme Court to classify prediction markets like Kalshi as gambling apps, backing states that want to close a federal loophole critics say lets teens bet and companies skip gambling taxes.
The National Football League has filed an amicus brief at the U.S. Supreme Court supporting New Jersey and 40 other states in their push to regulate prediction markets the same way states already police sports betting apps.
Breitbart News reported that the league argues platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket essentially operate as gambling apps and should face the same state rules, including a minimum age of 21 and state taxes.
Those apps now sit under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight as securities trading. Critics have called that setup a loophole that lets the companies dodge gambling taxes and penalties while allowing 18-year-olds to place sports bets.
Football drives the money. In its brief the NFL said that on the first Sunday of the season the league accounted for $1.8 billion in prediction-market trading, more than half the total.
That volume is why the league says it had little choice but to weigh in. Officials want states, not a single federal commodities regulator, setting the rules so they can better police insider trading and protect the integrity of games.
The core worry is straightforward. A player who intentionally drops a pass or misses a kick can move markets and cash in if the rules stay loose. State gambling regulators already watch for that kind of conduct. The NFL wants the same tools applied here.
Other major leagues have taken different paths. The NHL, UFC, MLS, and MLB have struck business deals with the prediction sites. The PGA and NBA have joined the NFL in keeping distance.
Commissioner Roger Goodell told CNBC in September the league saw no need to rush into partnerships.
Goodell said:
"We don’t feel like we have to be the first in this. We feel like we’re going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient."
Patience is now paired with legal pressure at the highest court in the land. Cases that reach the justices often reshape how federal and state power divide, much as recent Supreme Court map fights have shown.
Kalshi rejected the NFL’s framing. A company spokesperson told the New York Post the firm already faces heavy federal scrutiny and partners with other leagues.
The Kalshi spokesperson said:
"Kalshi’s top priority is the integrity of its markets. That priority is reflected in the fact that every other major sports league and integrity partner in the United States is partnering with Kalshi, including the MLB, NHL, and others."
The same spokesperson added that the CFTC is already policing sports-related markets listed on nearly every U.S. commodities exchange and is running rulemaking that addresses the league’s concerns. Those rules, the company said, rest on the same federal enforcement system that protects trillions of dollars in U.S. market transactions.
Polymarket struck a similar note, stressing its own surveillance tools and work with federal agencies.
A Polymarket spokesperson stated:
"Polymarket shares the NFL’s commitment to preserving the integrity of the game, which is why we’ve built advanced market surveillance tools and are actively collaborating with the CFTC, SEC, and other professional leagues toward a harmonized federal framework that delivers a stronger, more consistent form of integrity compared to a patchwork of disconnected state laws built for a bygone era."
Kalshi also said it had tried to work with the NFL in the past and was ignored. The league has instead chosen the courtroom route alongside the states.
New Jersey and the 40 other states argue that prediction contracts tied to game outcomes look and act like sports bets. They want the power to set age floors, collect taxes, and enforce integrity standards the way they already do with licensed sportsbooks.
That position lines up with a broader pattern of states defending their traditional police powers when new technology tests old boundaries. Readers who follow the Court have seen similar federal-state tension in other recent matters, including when the Supreme Court stepped aside in a contested custody fight and left state processes in place.
The practical difference is real. Under the current CFTC approach, an 18-year-old can trade on football outcomes. Under the state model the NFL backs, the floor would rise to 21 and the platforms would face the same tax and penalty regime that applies to gambling apps.
How the justices handle emergency and high-profile dockets has itself become a point of public debate, with Justice Jackson recently pressuring colleagues over the pace of those cases.
Prediction markets have grown fast by offering contracts on sports, politics, and other events. The NFL’s $1.8 billion figure from one Sunday shows how quickly football became the dominant product.
That concentration of volume is exactly why the league says state regulation matters. A single player decision can swing millions. Without the compliance systems states already use for sports betting, the risk of insider moves rises.
Federal commodities rules were written for futures and derivatives, not for Sunday afternoon touchdowns. Treating game-tied contracts as ordinary securities lets platforms operate nationwide under one lighter framework. The states and the NFL want that ended.
Court watchers know the justices’ votes can surprise even their own nominating presidents, a point raised when Trump faulted his three Supreme Court nominees for frequent independent votes.
For now the platforms insist federal oversight is tougher and more uniform than a “patchwork” of state laws. The NFL and the states counter that the patchwork is deliberate: it keeps age limits, taxes, and integrity enforcement close to the games and the fans who watch them.
The Supreme Court will decide whether prediction markets stay under the commodities umbrella or face the same state gambling rules that already govern the rest of the sports-betting industry. Taxpayers, parents, and fans who want clean games have a clear stake in that answer.
When billions ride on a single pass, the rules should protect the game, not the loophole.
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