Zohran Mamdani, a self-described socialist, is leading the pack in the race for New York City’s mayor, but his past anti-police rhetoric is raising eyebrows.
A poll from American Pulse Research & Polling, conducted August 14-19, 2025, shows Mamdani with 36.9% support among 638 likely voters, outpacing Andrew Cuomo at 24.6%, Curtis Sliwa at 16.8%, and incumbent Eric Adams at 11.4%. Mamdani’s lead has grown since early July, but his radical past could still trip him up.
Mamdani’s June 2020 tweet called for defunding the police while pushing a socialist vision for New York, a stance that 58.4% of voters now say makes them less likely to back him. That’s a hefty chunk of the electorate recoiling from his old rhetoric. It’s no surprise—New Yorkers want safe streets, not sloganeering.
Despite his frontrunner status, 45% of voters find Mamdani’s policies too extreme, a warning sign for his campaign. “Zohran Mamdani remains the candidate to beat,” said pollster Dustin Olson, but the numbers suggest he’s on thin ice. When public safety comes up, his support wobbles like a bad subway car.
Olson also noted, “When crime and public safety enter the conversation, his ceiling shows.” That’s a polite way of saying Mamdani’s anti-cop baggage could drag him down faster than a Midtown traffic jam. Voters aren’t forgetting his past, even if he’s now backpedaling on slashing police budgets.
Mamdani claims he no longer supports defunding the police, a convenient pivot as the November 4, 2025, election looms. But 6% more voters said they’d pick “anyone else” over him after hearing about his anti-NYPD comments. Trust is hard to rebuild when your old tweets are still trending.
Andrew Cuomo, trailing at 24.6%, isn’t exactly winning hearts either, with 53% of voters turned off by his cashless bail law approval during his governor days. His 55% unfavorable rating doesn’t help his case. The former governor’s political baggage is heavier than a rush-hour subway.
Incumbent Eric Adams is faring even worse, with only 11.4% support and a crushing 65% unfavorable rating. The Trump Justice Department dropping corruption charges against him didn’t do any favors—68.7% of voters are less likely to back him because of it. Adams’ mayoralship is sinking, and fast.
Curtis Sliwa, with 16.8% support, has a loyal 53% of Republicans in his corner, but 45% of voters overall aren’t fans. His underdog status might be understated, though, as the poll suggests his numbers could be higher. Still, Sliwa’s Guardian Angels bravado hasn’t fully caught on.
Mamdani and Sliwa, as party nominees, will enjoy prime ballot placement, while Cuomo and Adams languish on independent lines. That’s a structural advantage that could keep Mamdani’s lead intact. Ballot real estate matters in a city where voters are already overwhelmed.
If Sliwa drops out, Mamdani’s support creeps to 38.3%, with Cuomo at 32.3% and Adams at 20.4%. If Adams exits, Mamdani hits 38.5%, Cuomo gets 30.3%, and Sliwa rises to 23%. These shifts show Mamdani’s lead is solid but not unassailable.
Another poll from Gotham Polling & Analytics/AARP, released August 19, 2025, confirms Mamdani’s double-digit lead but notes voters are souring on him. His 47.8% favorable rating barely edges out his 43.6% unfavorable score. That’s a tightrope walk for a frontrunner.
Mamdani’s 48% support among Democrats gives him a strong base, but his anti-police history could alienate moderates. His socialist label and extreme policies aren’t exactly a love letter to the average New Yorker. The city’s craving for balance might clip his wings.
Cuomo and Adams, meanwhile, are weighed down by their scandals and missteps, making Mamdani’s path easier. But the poll hints that Mamdani’s support might be understated, just as Cuomo and Adams’ numbers could be inflated. It’s a volatile race with plenty of room for surprises.
New Yorkers face a choice: a socialist with a shaky past on public safety, a scandal-scarred former governor, a struggling incumbent, or a streetwise underdog. The November 4 election will test whether Mamdani’s lead can withstand the city’s demand for practical solutions over ideological crusades. For now, he’s ahead—but the race is far from over.
