America’s military edge might be duller than we’d like to admit in a face-off with China. Defense expert Seth Jones, a former Pentagon official and head of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), has sounded the alarm about our lagging production and shrinking missile reserves. It’s a wake-up call we can’t afford to snooze through.
Jones, in his latest book “The American Edge” and a candid chat with Fox News Digital, lays bare the stark reality of U.S.-China military competition, warning that our industrial capacity and stockpiles are dangerously outpaced in a potential clash over Taiwan.
Let’s start with China’s muscle-flexing—they’ve got an economy rivaling ours, deeply woven into global markets, and they’re using that cash to supercharge their military. From cutting-edge aircraft to a shipbuilding industry that’s reportedly 230 times larger than ours, Beijing is playing to win. It’s not just bravado; it’s a strategic sprint we’re struggling to match.
On September 3, 2025, China paraded its YJ-19 hypersonic anti-ship missiles in Beijing, celebrating 80 years since World War II’s end. That’s not just a show—it’s a signal of their intent to dominate with weapons designed to keep U.S. forces at bay near Taiwan. While they’ve got gaps, like weak submarine detection and corruption in their ranks, their sheer output is daunting.
Jones doesn’t mince words on our vulnerabilities. “After roughly a week or so of conflict [over Taiwan], the United States could burn through key long-range missiles,” he told Fox News Digital. A week—that’s it, folks, before we’re scrambling for ammo in a fight we can’t afford to lose.
Now, let’s not pretend China’s invincible; their ability to project power far from home is shaky, and they’ve got no real combat experience since the late 1970s. Still, their industrial machine is humming on what Jones calls a “wartime footing,” while we’re stuck with aging shipyards and bureaucratic red tape. It’s like bringing a slingshot to a drone fight.
Our defense industrial base? It’s a mess of slow timelines and outdated production lines, unfit for the kind of great-power showdown we might face. The Pentagon’s a lumbering giant, and as Jones puts it, “It’s going to take a lot to break that bureaucracy.” We’re in trench warfare just to get our own systems moving.
Thankfully, there’s a flicker of hope—recent moves by the Army, Air Force, and Navy to speed up acquisitions and support smaller firms show we’re not asleep at the wheel. Senior defense officials are even tossing around “wartime footing” as the mindset we need. It’s about time we matched that urgency.
Legislation like the National Defense Authorization Act is pushing to expand shipbuilding and bolster our workforce, while talks of tapping allied shipyards in Japan and South Korea could ease the strain. But with U.S. defense spending at just 3% of GDP—lower than Cold War levels—we’re penny-pinching on national security. That’s a gamble we might regret.
Jones also flags the game-changing role of artificial intelligence in modern warfare, especially for air defense and surveillance against missile and drone swarms. “You can’t do things like air defense now without an increasing role of artificial intelligence,” he told Fox News Digital. We’ve got to rope in tech giants like Nvidia and Google, or risk falling behind in the digital battlefield.
The Trump administration, to its credit, is nudging the Pentagon to hustle on drones, munitions, and maritime capabilities. But let’s be real—bureaucracy doesn’t bend overnight, and every delay chips away at our readiness. It’s a race against time, not just against China.
Here’s a silver lining: the U.S. still dominates undersea warfare, a potential ace in the hole against China’s weaker submarine-hunting skills. Leveraging attack subs and unmanned underwater vehicles could tilt a Taiwan conflict in our favor. But that’s only if we shore up the basics first.
China’s industrial might and missile arsenals are a glaring challenge, but their internal inefficiencies and limited reach offer openings—if we act fast. We can’t afford to let progressive distractions or bureaucratic inertia sidetrack us from rebuilding our military backbone. This isn’t about fear; it’s about facing facts.
The numbers don’t lie, and neither does Jones’ warning of a missile shortage after mere days of conflict. America’s always risen to the occasion, but it takes grit, not just good intentions, to reclaim our edge. Let’s hope our leaders are listening before the clock runs out.
