Former President Donald Trump is gaining ground among Latino voters in the 2024 presidential election, a key demographic that he struggled to connect with in his previous runs for office. Recent polling data indicates that Trump has increased his support significantly compared to his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
Newsweek reported that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, still leads overall with Latino voters but Trump is rapidly eating into her lead and could win more Latino votes than ever.
Trump’s performance among Latino voters has improved steadily over the years. In the 2016 election, only 19% of Latino voters supported him, according to NBC News polling data.
By the 2020 election, that number had risen to 27%. Now, in 2024, Trump’s support among registered Latino voters has surged to 40%, as reported by a recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll conducted between September 16-23.
While Trump is making gains, Harris holds the majority of Latino support, with 54% of registered Latino voters backing her, according to the same NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered Latino voters, has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, 6% of Latino voters remain undecided or say they would not vote in the upcoming election.
The Latino electorate, which consists of 36.2 million eligible voters, represents the second-largest group of eligible voters in the U.S. This makes them a critical voting bloc, particularly in swing states such as Arizona and Nevada, where both candidates are vying for support.
In Arizona, Trump holds a narrow lead over Harris, with polling averages from FiveThirtyEight showing him ahead by one percentage point, 47.9% to 46.9%. In Nevada, however, Harris edges out Trump by 1.5 percentage points, 48% to 46.5%.
These margins underscore the importance of Latino voters in these battleground states, as their preferences could tip the balance in the final outcome.
Harris’ support among Latino voters has also improved compared to President Joe Biden’s numbers earlier in the election cycle.
After Biden exited the race in July, Harris took over as the Democratic nominee, and her current support among Latinos reflects a stronger position than Biden's polling numbers before his departure.
Although Harris leads overall with Latino voters, Trump has gained an edge in certain policy areas that resonate with this group.
Among Latinos, Trump is favored when it comes to securing the U.S.-Mexico border and controlling immigration, with 47% of voters supporting him compared to 34% for Harris. Additionally, Trump leads on economic issues, with 46% of Latino voters preferring his approach to inflation and the cost of living, while 37% back Harris.
On broader economic issues, Trump also has a slight advantage, with 45% of Latinos saying they trust him more to handle the economy, compared to 41% who prefer Harris' policies.
Harris, on the other hand, is the preferred candidate on key social issues and on questions of character. She leads Trump decisively in areas such as the humane treatment of immigrants and protecting immigrant rights, with 57% of Latino voters supporting her stance versus 18% for Trump.
When it comes to abortion, 56% of Latino voters side with Harris, compared to just 24% who agree with Trump’s position. Harris also holds an advantage on addressing the concerns of the Hispanic community, with 53% backing her compared to 23% for Trump.
Furthermore, Harris scores better on trustworthiness and her perceived mental and physical ability to serve as president, which could influence voter perceptions as the campaign progresses.
The two candidates' campaign strategies reflect their varying levels of investment in the Latino community. Harris' campaign has committed $13.4 million to advertising in Hispanic media since August, underscoring her team’s effort to solidify her support among this key voter base.
In contrast, Trump’s campaign has spent significantly less, with only $609,000 directed toward Hispanic media advertising during the same period.
However, Trump has tapped into cultural outreach efforts by enlisting popular Latino entertainers like Puerto Rican reggaeton stars Anuel AA and Nicky Jam to help him connect with the community.
Anuel AA and Nicky Jam have used their platforms to endorse Trump and rally Latino voters in his favor. "Vote for Trump," Anuel AA stated, urging his fans to support the former president. Nicky Jam echoed this sentiment, saying, "It's been four years and nothing has happened. We need Trump. Let's make America great again."
Their endorsements have added a cultural layer to Trump’s campaign, although it remains to be seen how much impact these endorsements will have on the broader Latino electorate.
