Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in pivotal battleground states, according to fresh polling data.
The Hill reported that a survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College reveals that Trump holds an advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—three key states that will be crucial in determining the 2024 presidential election outcome.
The polls indicate a drop in Harris’s support in these states since August, marking a reversal of fortune in what was previously a closer contest.
The polls, released on Monday, show Trump ahead by 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Georgia, and 2 points in North Carolina.
These figures reflect the opinions of likely voters and point to a significant shift since August, when Harris was either tied or slightly ahead in these same states.
In Arizona, Trump now leads Harris 50% to 45% among likely voters, compared to last month when Harris held a 4-point lead at 49% to Trump's 45%.
The reversal highlights the growing momentum for Trump as Harris struggles to maintain support in the region. Seven percent of respondents in Arizona remain undecided, signaling that voter opinion could still fluctuate.
In Georgia, Trump's lead has grown from a dead heat last month to a 4-point advantage. He now garners 49% of the vote compared to Harris’s 45%. Meanwhile, 8% of those surveyed in Georgia stated they were undecided, reflecting a slight increase from August, when only 6% were uncertain.
North Carolina also saw a significant change. Harris led last month by a narrow 49% to 46%, but the latest polling shows Trump now ahead by 2 points, at 49% to 47%. In both surveys, 5% of voters in North Carolina indicated they were undecided or refused to answer.
Since August, Harris’s support has fallen in all three of these critical battleground states. The polling data suggests that a combination of factors, including President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, may be influencing voters' shifting allegiances. The shift could present a tough path for Harris in the months leading up to the election.
Pollsters from The New York Times and Siena College noted that North Carolina and Georgia are particularly important for Trump's campaign.
Winning these two Southern states would bolster his chances of retaking the White House, whereas Harris’s route to victory may not depend as heavily on these regions. However, losing these states would make her path to the presidency much more difficult.
The new polls were conducted between September 17 and 21, surveying 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 in Georgia, and 682 in North Carolina.
The margin of sampling error among likely voters in each state was relatively small but significant: 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, 4.6 in Georgia, and 4.2 in North Carolina.
Despite these leads, Trump’s margins remain close, and the race is still highly competitive. According to polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Trump holds a slight edge over Harris in all three states by less than half a percentage point.
These averages place Trump ahead by just 0.1 percentage points in both Arizona and Georgia and by 0.5 points in North Carolina.
Undecided voters may prove to be key in these states. In Arizona, 7% of likely voters stated they either didn’t know or refused to answer, while the numbers were 8% and 5% for Georgia and North Carolina, respectively. These percentages represent a small but potentially decisive group that could determine the outcome as the campaign progresses.
The polling data points to a race that is far from settled, with Harris still maintaining a solid base of support in these battleground states. However, the erosion of her lead in such a short period suggests she will need to focus heavily on these regions to regain lost ground.
