New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a nail-biter that could redefine the Garden State’s political landscape.
As Election Day looms, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are locked in a fiercely competitive battle, with recent polls showing the gap narrowing in one of only two gubernatorial races nationwide this year.
This contest has been heating up for months, with both candidates hitting the campaign trail hard during the summer and fall of 2025. Ciattarelli, making his third consecutive run for the office, came razor-close to unseating Gov. Phil Murphy back in 2021. His persistence is either admirable or, as some might quip, a bit like a dog chasing the same car over and over.
On October 13, Sherrill made her case at a news conference in Clifton, N.J., projecting confidence in her ground game. Two days later, on October 15, Ciattarelli rallied supporters at a diner in Saddle Brook, N.J., showing he’s not backing down.
Sherrill, a U.S. Naval Academy grad and former helicopter pilot, first elected to Congress in 2018, campaigned alongside prominent Democrats like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore in Newark on October 19. Her camp is touting what they call the largest volunteer field program in state history, though some critics have jabbed at her for a perceived lack of spark on the stump. Could it be that progressive policies are a tougher sell than expected in a state with plenty of moderate voters?
Ciattarelli, meanwhile, has been drawing big crowds in the final stretch, backed by MAGA heavyweights like Vivek Ramaswamy and Rep. Byron Donalds at events like a diner stop in Linden, N.J. Their goal is clear: energize low-propensity Trump supporters in this off-year election. If they can turn out the base, the math might just tilt in their favor.
High-profile endorsements are pouring in as the race tightens, with President Donald Trump set to hold a tele-rally for Ciattarelli before Election Day. On the other side, Sherrill will welcome former President Barack Obama to headline a rally in Newark on November 1, alongside other big names like Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. It’s a veritable political circus, but will star power translate to votes?
Speaking of votes, early voting kicks off on October 25, 2025, giving both campaigns a critical window to lock in support. Ciattarelli seems particularly eager, recently urging his base with, “Early voting starts this Saturday. We turn out, we win” (Fox News).
But let’s unpack that enthusiasm—while Ciattarelli’s energy is undeniable, New Jersey still has more registered Democrats than Republicans, even with a GOP registration bump this decade. His claim of a strong position might be more hope than reality unless those Trump voters show up in droves.
Recent polls from outlets like Fox News, Quinnipiac University, Fairleigh Dickinson University, and Rutgers-Eagleton over the past two weeks reveal Ciattarelli closing in on Sherrill. Other surveys, both public and internal, peg the race within the margin of error. This isn’t just close; it’s a coin toss with high stakes.
Sherrill, for her part, remains upbeat about her chances, telling Fox News, “We're seeing great returns on the vote by mails. We'll start early voting the 25th, which we're really excited about.” Her confidence in grassroots efforts is notable, but in a state hungry for change, will it be enough to counter Republican momentum?
Let’s not forget the undercurrent here—many conservatives feel New Jersey’s been steered too far left under Democratic leadership. Ciattarelli’s pitch for change resonates with those frustrated by progressive agendas that, in their view, prioritize ideology over practical governance.
The closing days of this race promise more fireworks, with both candidates pulling out all the stops. Ciattarelli’s diner chats and Sherrill’s star-studded rallies are just the tip of the iceberg as they vie for every last vote.
What’s clear is that this election isn’t just about two candidates—it’s about the direction of New Jersey. Will voters opt for Sherrill’s steady hand or Ciattarelli’s call for a conservative shake-up? Only the ballot box will tell.
As the Garden State braces for a potential photo finish, one thing is certain: every door knocked and every early vote cast could tip the scales. So, whether you’re Team Sherrill or Team Ciattarelli, the message is the same—get out there and make your voice heard. After all, in a race this tight, sitting on the sidelines isn’t an option.
