Could a Democrat who once trashed Nashville and country music actually win in a deep-red Tennessee district?
In a stunning turn of events, a special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—a Republican bastion where President Trump secured a 22-point victory last year—has become a nail-biter, with GOP candidate Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn by a mere two points, 48% to 46%, in a recent poll by Emerson College Polling and The Hill.
This race, set for Dec. 2, 2025, is to replace former Rep. Mark Green, who stepped down earlier this year for a private-sector role.
The 7th District, covering parts of Nashville, Tennessee’s capital and largest city, isn’t supposed to be competitive, yet here we are.
Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, was spotted speaking at a campaign event in Nashville and casting an early ballot on Nov. 12, 2025.
Meanwhile, Behn, a 36-year-old current state representative who won a special election to the Tennessee House in 2023, was seen rallying supporters at events on Nov. 14, 2025.
Behn, sometimes dubbed the “AOC of Tennessee,” has a history of provocative statements that could alienate traditional voters in this conservative district.
“I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it’ city to the rest of the country,” Behn said in a 2020 podcast. If you’re running in a district that includes Nashville, dismissing its culture might not be the winning play—especially when country music is practically a religion here.
She’s also called Tennessee a “racist state” in a 2019 op-ed in The Tennessean and, in 2020, posted on X supporting the idea of dissolving Nashville’s police department while praising a poll showing many Americans justified burning a police station. These positions might energize a progressive base, but they risk turning off moderates who value law and order.
The Emerson College poll, conducted Nov. 22-24, 2025, among 600 likely and early voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.9 points, shows Van Epps holding a slim 49% to 47% edge when undecided voters lean one way or another.
“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. This split suggests Behn’s messaging might resonate more with women, while Van Epps holds the traditional male conservative vote—hardly a shock in a state like Tennessee.
Age and voting timing also split the electorate: Behn dominates among under-40 voters with 64% support, while Van Epps surges to 61% among those over 70, and early voters favor Behn 56% to 42%, but Election Day voters tilt toward Van Epps 51% to 39%.
President Trump’s approval in the district is underwater at 47% to 49%, with independents particularly sour—59% disapprove compared to just 34% who approve.
If Behn pulls off an upset, it could shrink the House Republican majority to a razor-thin three seats, sending shockwaves through the GOP after recent losses in other off-year elections in states like New Jersey and Virginia.
With the economy topping voter concerns at 38%, followed by housing affordability at 15% and other issues like healthcare and threats to democracy, both candidates face an electorate hungry for practical solutions over ideological posturing—something Behn’s past comments might struggle to align with in this conservative heartland.
