Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent presidential bid is unexpectedly drawing more voters from Donald Trump's base than from Joe Biden's, a recent NBC News poll found. This unusual trend could change the competitive landscape in the upcoming election.
The latest data shows Kennedy's crossover appeal is primarily with Trump supporters, altering the traditional third-party impact dynamics.
In a head-to-head matchup, the poll measures Donald Trump slightly ahead of Joe Biden, with a narrow margin of 46% to 44%. However, the addition of other candidates to the race introduces new variables.
When the race expands to include five candidates, the poll shows a reshuffling of voter support. Joe Biden leads with 39%, closely followed by Trump at 37%. Most notably, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 13% of the vote, a figure that underscores his influence among traditionally Republican voters.
The data further indicates that 15% of Trump supporters in a two-way contest have shifted their allegiance to Kennedy when more options are presented. This shift is contrasted sharply by only 7% of Biden’s supporters making the same switch. Kennedy's unique appeal among Republicans is highlighted by his surprisingly positive reception; 40% of GOP voters view him favorably, while only 16% of Democrats feel the same.
Concerned by these developments, the Biden campaign has responded by emphasizing connections within the Kennedy family to shore up Democratic support. A recent campaign event featured endorsements from Kennedy family members who vocally support Biden over their relative.
Similarly, the Democratic National Committee and associated super PACs have ramped up their focus on Kennedy, treating him not as a marginal candidate but as a serious contender who could siphon crucial votes. This strategic pivot reflects the party’s urgency in addressing Kennedy’s unexpected rise in popularity among conservative voters.
Comments from political analysts further underscore the importance of these findings. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt remarked, “At this stage, [Kennedy’s] appeal looks to be more with Trump than Biden voters.” His counterpart, Republican Bill McInturff, added a note of caution about the poll's implications: “The results on Kennedy’s impact are different than other surveys. So there’s always two possibilities: One, it’s an outlier… Or two, we’re going to be seeing more of this, and our survey is a harbinger of what’s to come.”
This shifting allegiance could spell a disruptive change in the traditional electoral dynamics, where third-party candidates typically pull from the Democratic base. Kennedy’s campaign, by appealing significantly to conservative voters, may reshape predictions and strategies in presidential races going forward.
The widening divide in voter preferences as evidenced in the polls suggests a possibly turbulent road to the election, with campaigns needing to adjust their strategies in real-time. How Kennedy will impact the final results remains to be seen, but one thing is clear — his candidacy is a wildcard that might just reshuffle the entire deck.
