Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s sudden exit from the 2024 presidential race and his subsequent endorsement of former President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, just 74 days before the election.
USA Today reported that Kennedy, who had been running as an independent candidate, suspended his campaign amid a series of controversies that had plagued his bid for the presidency.
His decision to endorse Trump is seen as a significant development, but experts remain divided on how much this will actually impact the outcome of the race.
Kennedy's campaign had been facing increasing difficulties in recent months. New allegations of sexual assault, coupled with other controversies, had significantly damaged his public image.
These issues contributed to a sharp decline in his poll numbers, which dropped from 11% in early May to just 4.5% nationally by the time he suspended his campaign.
Despite these setbacks, Kennedy's name will still appear on ballots in some states, though it will be removed from about 10 battleground states. This partial presence on ballots further complicates the potential impact of his endorsement on the overall election.
In a surprising twist, Kennedy suggested that he could emerge as a "negotiated president" if the Electoral College were to deadlock between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. This scenario, while unlikely, underscores the unpredictable nature of the current political environment.
Kennedy has been labeled an "election spoiler" by Democrats, but polling data has shown that his candidacy may have begun to hurt Trump more than the Democrats after Harris became the nominee. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll conducted in June revealed that Trump was the second choice for 32% of Kennedy supporters, while only 18% favored Biden.
Recent polling by the Cook Political Report in seven battleground states found that 45% of Kennedy voters favored Trump as their second choice, compared to 26% who supported Harris.
These figures suggest that while Kennedy's endorsement might help Trump in some areas, the overall impact may be limited.
Nationally, Kennedy's favorability ratings are less than stellar, with 45% of likely voters viewing him unfavorably and 39% holding a favorable opinion. This lukewarm reception could temper the potential benefits of his endorsement for Trump.
The Trump campaign, however, has expressed optimism about the endorsement.
Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for Trump's campaign, framed the endorsement as "good news" for Trump, suggesting it could help sway key swing states like Arizona in Trump's favor.
On the other hand, the Harris campaign has downplayed the significance of Kennedy's endorsement. Jen O'Malley Dillon, Harris' campaign chair, stated that the team remains confident in Harris' chances of winning, regardless of whether she is facing one candidate or multiple contenders.
Mary Beth Cahill, a senior adviser to the Democratic National Committee, also downplayed the impact, arguing that Trump's endorsement of Kennedy only adds to his "baggage" rather than bolstering his campaign. According to Cahill, the more voters learned about Kennedy, the less they liked him.
Political analysts have echoed these sentiments, with David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, suggesting that Kennedy's endorsement would have little impact on national polling.
Paleologos emphasized that the real question is how the endorsement might play out in swing states, where the effects are expected to be marginal at best.
The timing of Kennedy's endorsement, coming so close to Election Day, adds to the uncertainty surrounding its impact. With only 74 days left in the campaign, the influence of this endorsement on undecided voters in key battleground states remains unclear.
Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has seen modest gains in polls that include third-party candidates. This suggests that while Kennedy's exit and endorsement may create ripples, the overall effect on the broader electoral landscape might be minimal.
