Virginia’s gubernatorial race is heating up as Republican Winsome Earle-Sears claws her way closer to Democrat Abigail Spanberger. A recent Roanoke College poll shows Earle-Sears trailing by just seven points. With November 2025 looming, the contest is no longer a sleepy Democratic lead.
The race has tightened significantly, with Earle-Sears cutting Spanberger’s lead from 17 points in May to a mere seven in August. Virginia voters are split, with 14% still undecided and 76% locked in on their choice. Spanberger’s consistent edge is now under real pressure.
Back in May, Spanberger, a former CIA agent, seemed to be locked up. The Roanoke poll from August 11-15, surveying 702 residents, tells a different story. Earle-Sears, a Marine veteran, is gaining traction and shaking up the narrative.
Earle-Sears’ campaign has been hammering Spanberger on policy clarity. They’ve called out her vague stances on transgender issues and sanctuary cities, accusing her of dodging tough questions. It’s a sharp jab at Spanberger’s carefully curated moderate image.
“That kind of beltway nonsense will only take us backwards,” Earle-Sears quipped in a recent ad. Her campaign is betting that voters crave straight talk over polished ambiguity. Spanberger’s team, meanwhile, seems rattled, resorting to attack ads to slow the Republicans’ momentum.
On August 7, Spanberger’s campaign dropped its first negative ad, tying Earle-Sears to Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency cuts. It’s a classic move to paint the GOP as heartless budget-slashers. But with 50% of Virginians approving of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s performance, that tactic might not stick.
Spanberger still holds an edge, with 44% favorability compared to Earle-Sears’ 36%. Yet, the eight-point net favorability gap isn’t the slam dunk it once was. Voters are warming to Earle-Sears’ outsider appeal.
A left-wing veterans’ group threw $500,000 behind Spanberger this week, signaling Democratic nerves. The ad blitz aims to shore up her base, but it’s a curious move given Spanberger’s lack of military service. Earle-Sears, the actual veteran, might turn that into another talking point.
Virginia’s mood is shifting too, with 52% of voters saying the state is on the right track, up from 45% in May. That’s a subtle nod to Youngkin’s leadership, which Earle-Sears aligns with closely. Spanberger’s Biden-friendly voting record could be a liability here.
Youngkin, barred from re-running due to term limits, leaves big shoes to fill. His 50% approval rating suggests Virginians like his pragmatic conservatism. Earle-Sears is banking on that goodwill to carry her forward.
“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, Roanoke College’s interim IPOR director. That’s a polite way of saying the Democrats are sweating. Earle-Sears’ surge is no fluke; it’s a warning shot.
Spanberger’s team is playing defense, leaning on her CIA credentials to project strength. But credentials don’t vote, and her lead is shrinking as Earle-Sears connects with Virginians tired of progressive platitudes. The undecided 14% could tip the scales either way.
The Roanoke poll’s 4.3% margin of error means this race is closer than it looks. Earle-Sears’ focus on hot-button issues like transgender policies could sway the fence-sitters. Spanberger’s silence on these topics might not be the safe play she thinks.
Both campaigns are now in overdrive, with less than three months to go. Earle-Sears is framing Spanberger as a Biden proxy, a risky label in a state trending rightward. The Democrats’ attack ads suggest she’s feeling the heat.
Virginia’s gubernatorial race is no longer Spanberger’s to lose. Earle-Sears’ momentum, fueled by voter frustration with establishment politics, is rewriting the script. November 2025 will test whether Virginians want steady hands or a bold shift.
