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 July 8, 2023

Poll: Trump leads Biden in the swing states

A new poll from Echelon Insights has former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden in the swing states in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup. 

During a three-day period from June 26 to June 29, 2023, the pollster surveyed 1,020 likely voters. The results contain a 3.9 percentage point margin of error.

Echelon Insights asked participants whether they would vote for Biden or for Trump if the 2024 presidential election were to be held today.

In the swing states, as stated, Trump came out on top by eight percentage points, 48% to 40%. Of the remaining percentage points, 10% went to "unsure," and 3% went to third-party candidate Cornel West.

This eight percentage point lead is enough to overcome the poll's margin of error. And, the significance of this result cannot be overstated because swing states are where general elections are often won or lost.

Trump does not have as big a lead over Biden, according to Echelon Insights, nationally.

Here, Trump is only leading Biden by one percentage point, 43% to 42%. This is within the poll's margin of error. And so, it is very possible that Biden is leading Trump.

Of the remaining percentage points, 11% went to "unsure," and 4% went to West. When the third-party candidate is removed from the equation, Biden has a one percentage point lead over Trump.

The bottom line, though, is that, while Echelon Insights has Trump beating Biden in the swing states, the pollster has Trump and Biden virtually tied nationally.

Individual polls vary significantly with regard to the Trump versus Biden hypothetical 2024 matchup. Some have Trump winning. Some have Biden winning.

But, on average, Real Clear Politics indicates that - as the Echelon Insights poll suggests - the Trump versus Biden 2024 matchup is a toss-up. Real Clear Politics only has Trump beating Biden, on average, by a mere 0.6 percentage points - which is not really a lead at all.

The results for the party primaries are much clearer. Trump, according to Real Clear Politics, clearly leads the Republican field of candidates in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary. Trump is currently leading the second-place candidate - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) by, on average, 32.1 percentage points.

Biden is leading the Democratic field by an even bigger margin. Real Clear Politics currently has Biden up, on average, 49.6 percentage points, over the Democrats' number two candidate, who is Robert Kennedy Jr.

If the polling is correct, a 2024 Biden versus Trump matchup appears to be a virtual certainty. But, what is far less clear is who will win that matchup.

Written By:
Robert Ayers

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