Vice President JD Vance is surging ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2028 presidential face-off, according to a fresh poll.
A survey by Plymouth Union Public Research, conducted across seven battleground states, found Vance beating Newsom with 51% of likely voters compared to Newsom’s 49%. Vance clinched victories in five of the seven swing states—namely, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The poll signals a strong edge for Vance as he eyes the White House post-Trump.
The survey, conducted from August 8-10 with 1,000 likely voters, highlights Vance’s surprising crossover appeal. Nine percent of Democrats backed him, outpacing the seven percent of Republicans who leaned toward Newsom. This gap suggests Newsom’s progressive polish isn’t sticking where it counts.
Vance’s public image shines brighter than Newsom’s in the poll’s findings. Twenty-seven percent of voters view him very favorably, with a net positive image of three percent, despite 45% holding a negative view. Newsom, meanwhile, scrapes by with 16% very favorable and a whopping 25% of voters unaware of him entirely.
Newsom’s favorability struggles don’t end there. Only 21% see him somewhat favorably, while 24% view him very unfavorably, painting a picture of a governor who’s failing to connect. Vance, by contrast, seems to have a firmer grip on voter recognition and approval.
Other Democratic hopefuls didn’t fare much better. Former Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 49% favorable rating but is dragged down by 46% negative views. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trail with even less name recognition and mixed approval.
President Trump’s nod to Vance as a potential “heir apparent” to the MAGA movement adds weight to his lead. “Well, I think most likely,” Trump said, signaling confidence in Vance’s ability to carry the torch. Newsom’s team might scoff, but Trump’s backing is no small thing in today’s GOP.
Trump’s praise isn’t just hot air—Vance also dominated the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll for Republican presidential candidates. This one-two punch of Trump’s endorsement and grassroots support gives Vance a clear runway. Newsom’s coastal charisma, meanwhile, seems to falter in the heartland.
An earlier Emerson College poll in July echoed these results, showing Vance outpacing Newsom and other Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg. The consistency across polls suggests Vance’s momentum isn’t a fluke. Newsom’s progressive agenda might dazzle California, but it’s not winning over swing-state voters.
The poll also revealed strong support for Trump’s “America First Investment” policies, with 66% of voters backing the idea. Even 41% of Democrats and 36% of Harris voters agreed, showing the policy’s broad appeal. Newsom’s silence on such issues leaves him looking out of touch with economic nationalism.
Voters overwhelmingly want foreign companies to manufacture in the U.S., with 80% supporting partnerships with American firms to boost the economy. This sentiment, especially strong among 73% of Harris voters and 75% of Democrats, underscores a hunger for practical economic policies. Newsom’s globalist leanings don’t seem to resonate here.
Even younger voters, aged 18-29, showed 68% support for these policies, though they ranked lowest among age groups. The idea of leveling the playing field with China also struck a chord, with 71% of voters favoring reciprocity in business dealings. Newsom’s failure to champion such ideas could be costing him dearly.
The poll highlighted concerns about Chinese influence, with 71% of voters supporting requirements for Chinese companies to partner with American firms, mirroring China’s own rules. This policy, rooted in fairness, resonates across party lines, with 75% of Democrats and independents in agreement. Newsom’s progressive credentials offer little counterweight to this economic pragmatism.
Vance’s ability to tap into these voter priorities gives him a clear edge. His alignment with Trump’s economic vision, coupled with his crossover appeal, positions him as a formidable contender. Newsom, saddled with California’s baggage, struggles to match that energy.
The poll’s findings paint a stark picture: Vance is outpacing Newsom in both popularity and policy alignment. While Newsom’s Hollywood sheen might play well in Sacramento, it’s not cutting it in the battlegrounds. Vance, with Trump’s wind at his back, is poised to carry the MAGA mantle forward.
