Republicans in the House of Representatives hold a slight advantage in an early look at the 2024 election, according to Cook Political Report.
The analysis offers key insights into plans to hold and expand the House majority as part of the GOP's 2024 hopes.
Republicans hold slight advantage in race for House control in first ratings for 2024 cycle https://t.co/Tqr3xMRC1K
— 🌴PalmTreePatriot🌴 (@FLMomNYGirl) February 2, 2023
"With all 435 seats up for election, Cook Political indicated in the first analysis that 42 of the seats are considered competitive, with more of them correctly being held by Democrats. But, many of the competitive seats are in New York this cycle — where Republicans picked up multiple seats," Breitbart News reported.
"Of the seats considered a 'toss-up,' 11 are currently represented by Democrats, and nine are represented by Republicans," it added.
New @CookPolitical: our initial 2024 House race ratings, w/ 20 Toss Ups. Biggest upside for Dems? 18 GOP members in Biden-won districts. For Republicans? Potential new gerrymanders in NC & OH. Full analysis: https://t.co/wFZUpEZZpy pic.twitter.com/AFWLtWPr2s
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 2, 2023
"Republicans do have a huge insurance policy: the upcoming re-redistricting of North Carolina and Ohio, where temporary maps were used for the 2022 cycle by court order,” said David Wasserman, senior editor of Cook Political Report.
“In both states, Republicans captured state supreme court majorities in November, potentially allowing GOP-led legislatures to pass fresh gerrymanders for 2024. In theory, they could eviscerate up to seven Democratic seats — effectively doubling their current House margin,” he added.
NEW: Our 2024 House ratings are out
Republicans begin with an advantage: the House hasn’t flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952. But far more Republicans sit in Biden seats than Democrats sit in Trump seats.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) February 2, 2023
The analysis comes as dozens of lawsuits in more than 20 states were filed over issues related to redistricting of congressional districts. Most were filed in Ohio and North Carolina.
Key seats that may be vulnerable for the GOP in 2024 include New York's 3rd District currently held by Rep. George Santos (R). Accusations about his fabricated background could come back to hurt him and the party as he considers reelection.
Republicans also don't have much room to spare in keeping their advantage over Democrats.
The hope of a sweeping red wave ended up being smaller than expected, giving the party only a slight advantage.
Much will be determined by who runs as the Republican nominee for president in 2024, with former President Donald Trump currently the only major candidate to announce a campaign.