I know we are three full years away from the presidential campaign, but the maneuvering is well underway in terms of jockeying for position to be the favorite in the race.
For my money, it was California Governor Gavin Newsom who had made the most moves.
However, while his moves were popular in California, it does appear that it has hurt him nationally, as Harris is once again on top in polling.
Newsom took a pretty significant hit in recent polling, and that is very telling for how his policies are being perceived nationally.
For instance, he is pushing Prop 50, a gerrymandering bill, while hammering Texas for gerrymandering.
This may work well in the state, but most Americans are sick and tired of the manipulation of these district maps by both sides, so people are apparently seeing the blatant hypocrisy of Newsom here.
Newsom had worked his way from a pretender up to the favorite in the 2028 Democrat nomination, so this was a crushing blow for his presidential hopes.
There has been a lot of speculation about Harris skipping the California gubernatorial election so she will be able to campaign full-time for the 2028 presidential election, as well as getting a nice jump on the field.
Harris seemed to confirm those assumptions, stating, “I am not done. I have lived my entire career as a life of service, and it’s in my bones.”
She later added, “If I listened to polls, I would have not run for my first office, or my second office — and I certainly wouldn’t be sitting here.”
Harris has generally polled well early in races, so her comments are deceptive in regard to her polling for the offices for which she has run in the past. For instance, she was up by four points not long after being handed the nomination in the 2024 race, but crashed over the last three weeks of the race. She was also among the favorites in 2020, but again, she crashed after more or less accusing Biden of being a racist in a presidential debate.
Harris took a massive hit in late August, completely flipping polling in favor of Newsom for the Democrat nod. She had been leading 27-18 against Newsom, but four straight polls had Newsom taking a dominant lead.
The two most dominant were the Emerson College poll on 8.29.2025, with Newsom holding a 14-point lead, and the 9.19.2025 poll by AtlasIntel, showing Newsom with a 16-point lead.
However, the last two Echelon Insights polls have shown Harris increasing her lead from six points to nine points in the October 21 poll. What I would note, however, is that Harris’s lead is similar to the previous Echelon polls, virtually the only polling company to have her with a lead in the last three months (the other poll was the McLaughlin & Associates on 8.27.2025).
If I were Newsom, I wouldn’t get too worried about this yet, but it is worth keeping an eye on. If these other polls come out with a narrowed lead for Newsom or if they support the recent Echelon Insights poll, I can see Newsom doing some radical changes to his policies to try to get these voters back.
