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 November 14, 2023

Expert political statistician doubts Biden's ability to win in 2024

President Joe Biden's 2024 reelection chances are in the pits, and his dismal polling numbers -- among other factors -- are all the proof many, including Democrats, need in order to reconsider what's best for the Democratic Party going into next year's election.

According to The Daily Wire, a renowned political statistician sounded dire warning bells for the Democratic Party, suggesting that it move quickly to find another presidential candidate to run in Biden's place, or risk losing to the other side.

In a bombshell Substack piece, Nate Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of the data-focused outlet FiveThirtyEight, suggested that Biden's position is a losing one. He also noted that picking a new Dem candidate is also a gamble that could backfire.

But Democrats might have to roll those dice if they want to stand even a remote chance at maintaining control of the Executive Branch.

Silver, who has earned top recognition for his accuracy in forecasting election results and consequences, held nothing back as he unveiled the particularly bad situation in which the Democratic Party finds itself.

"Democrats would be taking a huge risk by replacing Biden — but they’re also taking a huge risk by nominating him," Silver wrote in his Substack piece.

He added, "If Biden can’t keep up with the schedule of a typical sitting president running for re-election, or is prone to making errors when he does, voters and the media are going to notice that and Biden will wear his 80+ years like an albatross around his neck."

His emphasis was on whether or not Biden could run a "normal" campaign and not another version of his 2020 "basement" campaign. Silver said he would take his chances on an alternative Democratic candidate if Biden hides from the cameras and the campaign again.

"If the choices are Biden running a reasonably normal campaign or a Mystery Democrat doing the same thing, I think it’s close," Silver said.

Silver continued, "But if it’s Biden running a Rose Garden campaign versus a different Democrat running a normal one, I’ll take my chances on the alternative, and Biden can join James K. Polk on the list of historically well-regarded presidents who didn’t seek a second term."

Biden has suffered a series of unfortunate -- and embarrassing -- age-related mishaps in 2023, which seem to intensify.

Reports emerged last month that even his own aides are growing increasingly concerned about his ability to not gaffe his way through the campaign.

In addition, Biden's polling numbers are in the gutter, where they continue to deepen, especially against former President Donald Trump in several hypothetical matchup polls.

Only time will tell if Democrats gamble on a new candidate, but they'll have to make that decision fairly quickly if that's a possibility.

Written By:
Ryan Ledendecker

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