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 July 1, 2024

Democrats' Lead On Abortion Shrinks To Negligible Margin

The latest survey indicates a significant shift in U.S. voter confidence regarding party handling of abortion, reducing the Democratic lead to a mere 2%.

Breitbart reported that the Democratic advantage in managing abortion issues has dwindled to statistical insignificance, reflecting a dramatic change from last November.

The Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted between June 18-20, reveals that 45% of likely voters now favor Democrats for handling abortion, compared to 43% for Republicans. This is a stark contrast to the 11-point lead Democrats held just eight months ago. A total of 1,080 likely voters participated in the survey, which has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

In January, Democrats maintained a four-point lead over Republicans (43% to 39%). However, this gap has now closed, reflecting a rapidly shifting political landscape. The narrowing of this margin highlights the volatile nature of public opinion on this issue.

Voter Demographics and Party Trust

The survey details how different demographics align themselves on the abortion issue. A consistent 49% of voters identify as pro-choice, and 42% as pro-life, with 10% unsure, mirroring January's figures. Notably, 75% of pro-choice voters trust Democrats, while 74% of pro-life voters lean towards Republicans.

Partisan alignment shows strong loyalty, with 82% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans favoring their respective parties on this issue. Among unaffiliated voters, the trust is almost evenly split, with 41% favoring Democrats and 40% Republicans, leaving 19% undecided.

Women are more likely than men to support abortion rights, 50% to 47%.

Surprisingly, more men trust Democrats on this issue than women (47% to 44%). Young voters under 40 significantly lean towards Democrats (50% to 37%), whereas older voters trust tend to gravitate slightly more towards Republicans.

Political affiliations also reflect differing views on abortion, with 72% of Democrats identifying as pro-choice and 64% of GOP voters as pro-life. Unaffiliated voters show a diverse perspective, with 46% pro-choice, 41% pro-life, and 14% unsure.

Implications for Upcoming Elections

The diminishing gap between the two major parties on abortion could signify a shift in the upcoming elections. As voter sentiments become more nuanced, the ability of either party to capitalize on this issue might determine their success in closely contested areas.

This realignment may pressure both parties to refine their strategies and messaging concerning abortion, as they attempt to sway undecided and swing voters in their favor.

"The Democrats' advantage on the issue is down from a four-point margin in January and has shrunk drastically since last November when Democrats led by 11 points on the abortion issue," reflects the survey report.

"Most partisan voters – 82 percent of Democrats and 80 percent of Republicans – trust their own party more to handle the abortion issue.

Among unaffiliated voters, 41 percent trust Democrats and 40 percent trust Republicans more, while 19 percent are undecided," the survey adds, highlighting the deep-seated loyalty within party lines and the uncertainty among independents.

Conclusion: A Closely Contested Issue

In conclusion, the Democrats' once formidable lead on abortion has narrowed dramatically.

Trust in the Democratic Party to handle the abortion issue has fallen from an 11-point lead last November to a negligible 2% over Republicans as of the latest survey. This shift occurs amid consistent demographic trends and a divided unaffiliated voter base, suggesting a highly contested battleground on this pivotal issue in future political contests.

Written By:
Christina Davie

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