David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, has urged caution within Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, warning against overconfidence in the face of a tight race against former President Donald Trump.
Fox News reported that Axelrod highlighted the ongoing competitiveness of the race, particularly in key swing states that will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election in his speech on Sunday.
Despite recent polls showing Harris and Trump nearly tied, Axelrod emphasized that the true battle will be won in the Electoral College, where Trump still has an advantage.
Axelrod’s warning comes as recent polling data from Ipsos revealed a neck-and-neck contest in seven critical swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
According to the survey, Harris holds 42% of the vote share in these states, closely followed by Trump at 40%, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. capturing 5%. The narrow margin between Harris and Trump underscores the significance of these battleground states, where the Electoral College ultimately decides the winner.
Axelrod pointed out that despite Harris’s current lead in the popular vote, the dynamics of the Electoral College could tip the scales in Trump’s favor. "This is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I‘m not sure who would win, and I think it may well be President Trump because it's an Electoral College fight," Axelrod noted, stressing the need for a robust strategy to secure key states.
Axelrod referenced the 2016 presidential election as a cautionary tale, where Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a two-point margin but ultimately lost the election due to narrow losses in crucial states.
Similarly, in 2020, President Joe Biden’s popular vote victory by approximately four points translated into slim margins in vital states like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, highlighting the unpredictable nature of Electoral College outcomes.
Axelrod also praised the Harris campaign for its recent progress with voters, particularly in comparison to the enthusiasm seen at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee last month.
However, he cautioned that this momentum must be translated into concrete action to ensure success on Election Day. "It's good to be enthusiastic. That enthusiasm is really, really important for the Democratic Party, but you have to turn that into energetic action in order to win the election," Axelrod emphasized.
At the RNC in Milwaukee, there was a sense of euphoria among Republicans, with many believing that a landslide victory was within reach.
Axelrod remarked on the shift in tone, noting that "things have changed dramatically" since the convention, underscoring the volatility of the current political landscape.
The Ipsos poll, conducted between July 31 and August 7, also shed light on the issues most concerning to voters in these swing states. Inflation emerged as the top priority, with 52% of respondents citing it as the most important issue, followed by immigration at 32%.
These concerns are likely to play a significant role in shaping voter behavior as the election approaches.
Axelrod’s comments serve as a reminder that while polling data can offer valuable insights, the final outcome will depend on the ability of the Harris campaign to mobilize voters and secure a decisive victory in the Electoral College.
With the race still highly competitive, both campaigns will need to focus on addressing the issues that matter most to voters in these crucial states.
