Six pivotal U.S. House races in California are set to play a major role in determining which party will control Congress in 2025.
Axios reported that with Latino voters forming a significant portion of the electorate, these races have drawn the attention of political experts and strategists from both sides of the aisle. Both Republicans and Democrats see California as crucial in their efforts to secure or maintain control of the House.
Latino voters, who make up nearly one in four of California's electorate, are expected to play a decisive role in many competitive districts.
Their influence is even more pronounced in several of the state's key battleground areas, including regions like the Central Valley and Orange County. Political analysts suggest that the turnout among Latino voters could determine the outcome of these highly competitive races.
The six districts drawing attention range across different parts of California, each offering its own unique dynamics.
In the 13th District, located in the Central Valley, a high-profile rematch is underway between incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Duarte and former Democratic state lawmaker Adam Gray. This race is seen as one of the most tightly contested, with issues like agriculture and water access at the forefront of voters' minds.
Similarly, in the 41st District, which covers parts of the Inland Empire, Republican U.S. Rep. Ken Calvert faces a familiar Democratic challenger, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins. This district has become another bellwether, with Rollins hoping to unseat Calvert after their previous showdown.
In Orange County's 45th District, U.S. Rep. Michelle Steel, a Republican, faces Democratic challenger Derek Tran in what is expected to be a highly competitive race. Meanwhile, in the 27th District, north of Los Angeles, incumbent Republican Mike Garcia is taking on Democratic challenger George Whitesides.
Rematches are a common theme this election cycle. The 22nd District, located in the San Joaquin Valley, is home to another closely watched contest between U.S. Rep. David Valadao, a Republican, and Democratic former state lawmaker Rudy Salas. The two faced off previously, and both parties are once again pouring resources into the race to try and claim victory.
In the 47th District, south of Los Angeles, State Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat, is running against Scott Baugh, a former Republican state Assembly leader. This race has drawn significant attention due to the retirement of U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, making it an open seat and a key battleground.
What makes these districts particularly significant is the substantial Latino voter population, especially in areas like the Central Valley and parts of Southern California. Latinos, while leaning Democratic in recent elections, do not have strong ties to the party, which makes these races highly unpredictable.
Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, noted that while Latinos have typically supported Democrats due to the party's pro-immigrant stance, issues in agriculture, such as access to water, have shifted priorities for many voters.
"The main reason they have leaned Democratic is because of the party's pro-immigrant stance, but now issues in agriculture, such as access to water, are top priority — and many see Republicans as owning that issue," Holyoke said.
According to experts, the key factor in determining the outcome of these races will be voter turnout, particularly among Latino voters. "Turnout in the races, especially among Latinos, will be crucial," Holyoke commented. Many political operatives are focusing their efforts on mobilizing this group, recognizing its potential to sway results in districts with close margins.
Despite leaning Democratic in recent years, some Latino voters in these districts are more concerned with local issues, such as agriculture, than with national party platforms. This could create unpredictability in races that Democrats might otherwise feel confident about. Holyoke emphasized that some Latino voters in the Central Valley "don't have strong ties to the Democratic Party, making the races even more unpredictable."
The importance of these six districts is reflected in the spending decisions of the major political action committees (PACs) involved. Two Republican and two Democratic PACs are collectively planning to spend nearly $73 million on ads in California alone. This substantial investment underscores the high stakes involved and the belief that control of the House could ultimately come down to the outcome of these California races.
With so much money being funneled into advertising, voters in these districts are being inundated with campaign messages, making the task of cutting through the noise even more challenging for candidates.
Another factor that could come into play is the involvement of Vice President Kamala Harris.
While her influence has largely been focused on the national stage, her presence in the state and her ties to California politics could potentially sway close House races. As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Harris may play a role in galvanizing Democratic turnout, especially among minority voters.
In many of these districts, particularly in the Central Valley, local issues such as agriculture, water access, and economic development are likely to be deciding factors.
While national political trends often influence voter behavior, candidates in these areas are increasingly focusing on hyper-local concerns to win over undecided voters.
Republicans have sought to position themselves as champions of agricultural issues, which resonates with many voters in the Central Valley. This could give them an edge in districts where these issues dominate the conversation.
