A new Siena College poll reveals that President Joe Biden holds only a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the traditionally Democratic state of New York. This points to potential challenges for Biden amid growing voter disillusionment with both candidates on key issues such as taxes, crime, and the economy.
Fox News reported that the poll indicates an eight-point gap, with Biden at 47% and Trump at 39%. This slim margin is a significant shift in a state that has historically leaned heavily Democratic. Trump, despite his legal troubles, seems to maintain substantial support among Republican voters.
Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist, interprets the poll results as a sign of broad dissatisfaction. "People are generally unhappy," he remarked.
This discontent spans across party lines and includes issues such as immigration and economic concerns, which have been critical in New York politics.
The poll underscores the growing divide among New York voters. While Biden has the backing of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump enjoys the support of 85% of Republicans.
Independent voters, crucial to any election outcome, seem to favor Trump by a significant margin, with 45% supporting Trump compared to 28% for Biden.
The gender gap is also notable in this poll. Men tend to favor Trump, showing a 46% to 42% split, whereas women lean towards Biden, who enjoys a 51% to 33% lead among female voters.
Steven Greenberg from Siena College highlighted these disparities, noting that white voters are equally split between the two candidates, while Biden leads among non-White voters. However, Trump still garners considerable support from minority groups, with 29% of Black and 26% of Latino voters backing the former President.
Last month, Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a New York court. Despite this, voter focus appears to be more on current issues rather than past legal battles. Sheinkopf stated, "The populace is more concerned with present conditions rather than Trump's past convictions."
The recent numbers echo a close gubernatorial race in 2022 when Democrat Kathy Hochul narrowly defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by a 6.4 percentage point margin.
Zeldin commented on the recent poll results, suggesting that close polling in New York could signify similar trends in other states with more balanced party registrations.
Immigration and the economy now rank higher on the list of concerns for many New Yorkers, reflecting a shift towards more conservative positions since Zeldin's gubernatorial campaign. This change in voter priorities has influenced perceptions of both Biden and Trump, but not necessarily in favor of either candidate.
Biden’s job performance and personal favorability ratings do not inspire confidence. His approval rating stands at 45%, with 53% disapproving of his job performance. His favorability rating is also low, with only 42% viewing him favorably compared to 53% unfavorably. This is Biden’s lowest rating recorded by Siena College.
The approval ratings for key Democratic figures in New York, such as Mayor Eric Adams and Governor Kathy Hochul, are also on the decline.
Zeldin pointed out that this trend could be beneficial for Trump's campaign, as dissatisfaction with Democratic officials could translate to broader disenchantment with the party.
Trump’s favorability rating is slightly lower than Biden's, with 37% viewing him favorably and 59% unfavorably. Despite these unfavorable ratings, Trump continues to assert his intention to win New York, though Sheinkopf remains skeptical of Trump's prospects in the state.
The upcoming CNN Presidential Debate in Atlanta will see both Biden and Trump face off, adding another layer of complexity to this already heated race.
Sheinkopf emphasized the significance of this debate, stating, "Biden needs to show strength and leadership to counterbalance Trump's ongoing influence, despite his legal challenges."
The Siena College poll has brought to light a highly competitive landscape in New York State, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.
With both candidates suffering from low favorability and voter dissatisfaction on the rise, Biden and Trump have significant hurdles to overcome. Key issues like immigration and the economy have shifted voter priorities more conservatively, complicating Biden's re-election campaign. As both candidates prepare for the CNN Presidential Debate this Thursday, the political tension continues to build, promising a contentious battle ahead.
