Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) believes he can defy the odds and hold the House in 2026.
There has been only one administration in the last eight decades to hold or improve the House after a party change in the first mid-term election, so it would be a monumental achievement if he could.
Former advisor to President Bill Clinton, Paul Begala, does not see it happening. In fact, he is predicting a blood bath for the GOP.
If we go back as far as the Trump administration, every single administration that took power for the first time lost in its first mid-term election, usually by quite a bit.
For instance, Barack Obama lost 63 seats in the House during his first term, while Donald Trump lost 40.
Joe Biden had a mild loss, only losing nine seats, with George W. Bush breaking the trend, having gained eight seats in his first midterm election.
Some others were Bill Clinton, who lost 52 seats, Ronald Reagan, who lost 26 seats, Jimmy Carter, who lost 15 seats, and Lyndon B. Johnson, who lost 47 seats. So, as you can see, history is against the Republicans here.
Johnson is convinced that the Trump administration has achieved enough already to warrant voters keeping the GOP in place.
He stated, “We have a solid, hardworking Republican majority in the House right now, and the Senate. We’re delivering for the people. And I’m very excited to go out and tell that story.
“I’m very excited about the midterm election. You know that we’re going to defy history when we grow the majority in the House, because it’s only twice in the last 90 years that a sitting president has picked up seats for his party in that first election cycle, but we’re going to do it this time.”
I have been warning people about this since the 2024 election wrapped, stating that Trump has to be flawless if he expects to win. And while he has gotten off to a relatively good start, it has been far from perfect, especially where the economy is concerned.
Making the race tougher for Johnson are early retirements and members of Congress seeking other offices. When combined with the historical results of this election, Begala believes the GOP is going to get lit up.
He stated, “Remember last week there was a terrible earthquake off the coast of Russia, and it took a long time before tsunami waves hit? Fortunately nobody was hurt. This is an earthquake, this is coming. The Republicans are looking at a wave election.”
He added, “This is what happened the last time, 2017. They cut taxes for the rich and tried to end Obamacare, and they failed. They lost 41 House seats in the next election. This combination of this bill where they cut taxes for the rich, exploded the debt, and cut health care for working people, that’s not going to fly man, that’s just not. 454 days away, that is a long time but I’m telling you, it’s going to be a 40-seat landslide, and the Republicans in Congress, I think, know it.”
I am not sure it will be that big, but I think it will be a huge challenge for the GOP to hold the House, considering the slim margin. The GOP should have crushed it in 2022, giving itself a big cushion, but the party is often its own worst enemy. Now, with a paper-thin margin, they are headed into an election that history says will be devastating. Let’s hope history is wrong.
