The much-anticipated ABC News debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris did little to impact the 2024 presidential race, according to polling data released by ABC.
Breitbart reported that despite the energetic exchanges between the two candidates, the debate had no measurable effect on voter preferences. The poll results indicated that Harris failed to gain on Trump despite the loud proclamations that Harris had "won" the debate.
ABC News, working alongside Langer Research Associates and Ipsos, surveyed 3,276 adults to assess the debate’s influence.
The poll revealed that Harris maintained a slight lead over Trump among all adults, registered voters, and likely voters.
Specifically, Harris held 51% support among all adults and registered voters, while her support among likely voters rose to 52%. Trump, in comparison, stood at 46% among all adults and likely voters, and 47% among registered voters.
The poll results were consistent with pre-debate levels, which led ABC News to admit that the debate "failed to move the needle" in the election.
Even though some media outlets claimed Harris outperformed Trump, the numbers showed no significant gain for her campaign. According to ABC, “Vote preferences haven’t moved meaningfully.”
Among Harris's base, she secured the same level of support as before, but crucially, she failed to draw in new supporters.
In contrast, Trump experienced a minor but notable bump in polling in battleground states. The uptick, though modest, indicates that Trump’s performance may have resonated with a subset of voters in key regions.
Criticism of the debate extended beyond the candidates, as the event’s moderators, David Muir and Linsey Davis, faced backlash for alleged bias. Multiple sources, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, accused the moderators of favoring Harris.
Trump was fact-checked seven times during the debate, while Harris did not face similar scrutiny, despite making what some viewed as misleading statements.
“The dishonesty and bias of the moderators set new records for a network trying to rig a debate,” Gingrich said, adding that ABC News was “the big loser” of the night. This criticism only fueled discussions about whether the moderators’ approach had influenced public perceptions of the debate.
Following the debate, Trump capitalized on the minor increase in his battleground state polling.
According to data gathered by pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis, Trump gained a two-point advantage in these critical regions. This slight increase in key states could prove pivotal as both campaigns focus on turning out voters in closely contested areas.
On Thursday, Trump responded to the post-debate analysis by announcing that there would be no third debate. He suggested that Harris’s desire for a rematch was a sign that she “knows she lost.” His remark came as debate over who performed better continued in political circles, but polling trends provided little indication of a clear victor.
Harris’s inability to secure a clear boost from the debate has led some political analysts to question the strength of her campaign strategy. With polling numbers virtually unchanged, concerns have emerged within Democratic circles about her late start to the campaign and the challenge of sustaining momentum through the final weeks of the race.
While Harris remains in the lead, the stagnant post-debate polling suggests that voters are not significantly swayed by these high-profile events. The risk for Democrats, according to political observers, is that Harris’s failure to gain new support could weaken her position as the election draws nearer.
In contrast, Trump’s campaign appears emboldened by the battleground state polling bump. His performance in the debate may have bolstered his standing in critical areas, though national polls still show him trailing Harris by a narrow margin. The campaign is now likely to focus on these battleground gains as they push toward election day.
As ABC News released its post-debate poll, the network faced further scrutiny for how the debate was handled.
Claims of bias in the moderation process have led to renewed debates over media fairness in presidential contests. Gingrich’s comments about the debate being “rigged” have fueled a broader conversation about the role of media in shaping public opinion during election seasons.
ABC’s poll ultimately reinforced the idea that debates, while highly publicized, do not always have a profound impact on the election. With support levels remaining steady, the race continues to hinge on a narrow margin, with both candidates vying for an edge in battleground states.
Whether or not Harris can regain momentum in the coming weeks remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign will likely lean into the small gains he has made as they aim to further chip away at Harris’s lead in crucial states.
