Could the U.S. economy be on the cusp of a surprising surge under President Donald Trump?
A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in January 2026 reveals a dramatic shift among 82 economic forecasters, who have significantly upgraded their outlook for the U.S. economy.
Recession fears have plummeted from a high of 45% in April 2025 to just 27% now, aligning with post-pandemic averages. Expectations for GDP growth, job creation, and interest rates have all risen, signaling stronger momentum as Trump heads into his second year in office.
Supporters of Trump’s policies are pointing to this data as vindication of his aggressive agenda. Tariff hikes, tax cuts, and regulatory rollbacks were initially met with skepticism, but the latest numbers suggest the economy is more resilient than critics feared, Breitbart reported.
It’s a refreshing change from the doom-and-gloom narratives that dominated much of last year.
Let’s rewind to spring 2025, when nearly half of surveyed economists predicted a recession within a year. Job forecasts were anemic, and the Federal Reserve was expected to slash rates aggressively to stave off collapse. That pessimism, often tied to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff policy, had largely evaporated by January 2026.
Now, GDP growth projections are painting a brighter picture. Forecasters expect fourth-quarter 2025 growth at an annualized 2.23%, up from a meager 1.14% predicted in October 2025, with first-quarter 2026 growth pegged at 2.13% compared to 1.47% previously. Full-year 2025 growth is now anticipated at 2.35%, a notable jump from the 1.92% forecast in late 2024.
The labor market outlook is equally encouraging, with economists now projecting average monthly payroll gains of 64,535 over the next four quarters. That’s a hefty 31% increase from the 49,367 jobs per month predicted just three months ago. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.52% by June 2026, better than the 4.68% feared during last spring’s panic.
Interest rate expectations have shifted, too, reflecting newfound confidence. The federal funds rate is now forecast at 3.08% by the end of 2026, down from a 3.34% prediction in April 2025, while the 10-year Treasury yield is projected at 4.15% by mid-2026, up 45 basis points from earlier estimates. This suggests markets are less desperate for safe havens as economic fears subside.
Even inflation concerns seem to be moderating, with consumer price inflation projected at 2.80% by June 2026, down from 3.03% forecast previously. Economists appear to believe robust growth can coexist with manageable price increases. That’s a slap in the face to naysayers who warned Trump’s policies would ignite runaway costs.
These upgraded forecasts come as Trump pushes forward with his bold economic plans. While some initially worried that tariffs and other measures might disrupt growth or spike inflation, the survey shows those concerns have eased. The economy’s apparent durability is giving the administration more breathing room to act.
Since Trump’s inauguration, the mood among forecasters has shifted noticeably. As his agenda took shape, growth projections strengthened, labor market outlooks improved, and the so-called “recession premium” in long-term rates faded. It’s hard to ignore that timing.
Critics might still grumble about potential risks down the road, but the data speaks louder. The sharp drop in recession probability from 45% to 27% isn’t just a number—it’s a signal that the sky isn’t falling, despite earlier hand-wringing over policy shifts.
For those frustrated with endless progressive warnings about economic collapse, this survey offers a dose of reality. It’s not about ignoring challenges but recognizing that bold moves can yield results without derailing progress. Trump’s approach seems to be gaining traction, at least for now.
Of course, not every forecast is a crystal ball, and a 27% recession chance isn’t zero. Yet, compared to the near-hysteria of spring 2025, this feels like a collective exhale. The numbers suggest a path forward that doesn’t bow to fear.
While direct quotes from economists are absent in the survey details, the Wall Street Journal’s broader reporting often highlights expert consensus. Without specific voices here, the raw data still tells a compelling story of renewed optimism.
Ultimately, this shift in economic outlook could reshape the narrative around Trump’s leadership. If these forecasts hold, they may embolden further policy experiments, proving that a strong economy doesn’t need to cower to conventional wisdom or overcautious critics.
