In February, Senator Tina Smith (D-MN) announced that she would be retiring and not run for re-election.
Rumors have been swirling about possible candidates, but one of those possible candidates, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), has just announced she will not be running for the seat.
After the Senator Al Franken (D-MN) debacle, the state of Minnesota needed someone with a solid profile to take over his seat.
Smith was serving as the Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota at the time, and Governor Dayton chose her to fill the seat in the special election.
The contest was a no-brainer at this point, and Smith ran away with the election, landing 76% of the primary vote, and 53% of the vote in the final election for the seat.
In 2020, she had to face off again for the seat, winning the election 48.8-43.5%, a far slimmer margin than when she had won the special election. Perhaps that is why she decided to step down now rather than risk losing the seat as an incumbent.
With Smith stepping down, there was immediate speculation about who would run to fill the seat in the 2026 election cycle.
At the top of that list was Rep. Ilhan Omar, a Squad member and one of the leaders of that group, along with AOC.
Along with Omar, Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan had announced her intention to run for the seat.
There was also speculation that Walz himself may run as a way to keep his profile up for the 2028 presidential election. As far as Minnesota is concerned, that is an all-star field of candidates.
Omar, like AOC, is all but guaranteed to win her House seat if she stays put, but moving up is a big move that is a 50-50 shot at best. While Omar is a lock within her district, the rest of the state is not so warm to her.
To that point, Omar decided to stick with the sure thing, effectively shutting down the rumors that she would be challenging for the Senate seat. Instead, she announced her re-election bid to the House, stating, "At a time when our rights are under attack, it is more important than ever to fight back against the chaos, corruption, and callousness of the Trump Administration.
"In Minnesota, we know that organized people will always beat organized money. Our campaign is ready to build on our successful grassroots organizing efforts to have a record turnout for the midterms and help win back the majority.”
Flannagan is a big name in the state, and Omar knows it would be a crapshoot to go after that seat when she has a guaranteed paycheck staying in the House. So, I am not surprised she is going to stay put, at least for now. And while I would not count on an AOC run against Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) just yet, she is leading in current polling, so don’t count that out just yet. Having said that, I think she will wait until Schumer retires to go after his seat.
