Vice President Kamala Harris participated in a presidential debate on Tuesday as part of the ongoing 2024 election campaign.
The New York Post reported that while her performance was closely watched, a new poll indicates that it did not significantly sway voters in the battleground state of North Carolina.
The poll, conducted by the Trafalgar Group, shows former President Donald Trump continuing to lead Harris in the state, which could be pivotal in the upcoming election.
According to the Trafalgar Group poll, Trump leads Harris 48.4% to 46% among likely voters in North Carolina, a state seen as critical for both parties.
The poll results were released on Saturday and were based on a survey conducted over two days, from Sept. 11 to Sept. 12.
This survey included 1,094 participants, with most respondents showing a preference for the Republican nominee if the election were held today. These findings mirror similar polls from August, where Trump held a 2-point lead over Harris in the state.
Despite Harris’ national presence and participation in the debate, the poll suggests that her performance may not have been enough to sway undecided voters or peel support away from Trump.
In fact, 2% of Harris’ supporters from previous polls appear to have switched their allegiance to Trump. This shift in voter sentiment occurred despite what many considered to be a less-than-stellar debate performance by the former president.
The poll reveals that only 3.1% of voters in North Carolina remain undecided, while 2.4% have chosen to support other candidates. This limited number of undecided voters suggests that both campaigns will need to focus on energizing their bases rather than trying to convert a significant number of swing voters.
The Trafalgar poll sampled a diverse group of voters, with approximately 34% identifying as an ethnicity other than white.
Notably, most of the participants were white females, who have historically played a critical role in North Carolina elections. There was also a gender gap, with about 10% more women than men among the survey participants.
Party affiliation among the respondents was also closely split, with 35.2% identifying as Republicans and 33.1% identifying as Democrats. The remaining respondents either identified with other parties or did not align themselves with any political party, further highlighting North Carolina’s battleground status in national elections.
Though Trump currently leads Harris, the margin remains narrow. A Survey USA poll conducted by High Point University in August had shown Harris with a slight lead in North Carolina, making the current findings by the Trafalgar Group particularly significant. The shift toward Trump, despite Harris’ efforts, shows that the state remains highly competitive.
The polling averages from FiveThirtyEight also underscore how tight the race is, with Harris holding a margin of just one-tenth of a percentage point in the national average. North Carolina remains one of the most hotly contested states, and small changes in voter sentiment could have significant ramifications for both campaigns.
As one of the few remaining swing states in the South, North Carolina plays an outsized role in national elections.
With both candidates vying for its 15 electoral votes, the state’s importance cannot be understated. Trump’s lead in North Carolina gives his campaign a strategic advantage in the region, where many other Southern states are considered reliably Republican.
However, the margin is small enough that Harris still has time to make gains before Election Day. The results of this poll suggest that while Trump may hold a slight advantage, the race is far from over.
