May 23, 2022

Strategists estimate Republicans chances of winning House and Senate

Republican strategists are taking estimates about what they believe Republicans will do if they take the majority in November, as most estimate that they will.

According to Hot Air columnist John Sexton, the House of Representatives is already considered a win for Republicans, with conservative estimates indicating Republicans will pick up 15 seats and high estimates putting that number at 40.

The question, however, is whether Republicans will take both houses, and some believe they will. Sexton cited Substack site’s Simon Bazelon, who said that a generic ballot average by Five Thirty-Eight gives some bad news.

While Democrats are polling slightly above historic averages for midterms, the Presidential party typically averages 47.5% of the two-party vote during midterms, and Democrats are polling at 48.7.

However, the President’s party also tends to decline in standing as the midterms approach, and that’s something Democrats can almost take to the bank when predicting what will happen in the next few months:

Additionally, polls have been biased towards Democrats in two of the last three cycles, and there is reason to think this bias will persist. The current 48.7% polling average may well be an overestimation.

Between those two factors, it’s reasonable to assume that Democrats are looking at a vote share between 47% and 48.5% this cycle.

This means Republicans will probably win the generic ballot by between three and six percent, and the median scenario is probably Republicans winning by around 4.5%. Since Joe Biden won by 4.5% in 2020, this would mean that the national environment has shifted 9 percentage points to the right.

According to Hot Air’s analysis, the primary takeaway is that Democrats’ hold on the senate seems tenuous, at best, and if they are smart, they’ll start worrying about what they’ll do if Republicans hold a supermajority.

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cozycalico (@guest_1285801)
1 month ago

All I can say is they better and then when they do they better produce what they promised.

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